Mystic Mike’s predictions: What does 2026 hold for paid media?
By Mike Sharp, Operations Director at Launch That time of year is here. The time when I confidently predict the…
In July, the UK introduced strict new age verification laws for adult content.
To access platforms like Pornhub, OnlyFans, Reddit NSFW communities, and even dating apps like Tinder, Bumble, Grindr, and Hinge, UK residents now need to provide:
- A government-issued ID
- Facial recognition scans, or
- Bank-based age confirmation through third-party providers like Yoti or Persona
But while these rules target a specific corner of the internet, their impact is far broader. Users, understandably concerned about data privacy, are pushing back. And they’re doing it with VPNs — tools which mask identity, location, and behaviour. In fact, some VPN providers have seen 1,400% spikes in UK sign-ups.
If you’re a CMO responsible for growth this is not something you can ignore. This shift directly impacts how you track, optimise, and grow sustainably.
In this article we unpack:
4 ways VPNs can impact on Paid Media
1. Geo-targeting and User Identity Are Becoming Unreliable
As VPN usage rises, user locations can appear spoofed, misclassified, or anonymous, making it harder to serve localised or hyper-targeted ads.
2. Retargeting Pools May Shrink
When users block cookies or mask their behaviour, traditional tracking pixels (e.g. Meta or TikTok) struggle to follow their journey, especially across devices.
3. Many VPNs Now Include Built-In Ad Blockers
This is the critical part: some of the most popular VPNs (like Proton VPN or NordVPN) now automatically block ads and third-party trackers.
That includes:
- Meta pixels
- Google tags
- Affiliate tracking
- And even some analytics tools
This makes client-side tracking increasingly fragile, particularly on mobile where VPN usage is surging.
4. Evolving platforms
Meta’s Advantage+ and TikTok’s Smart Performance Campaigns rely less on user-specific data and more on AI-based pattern recognition. Expect a continued shift toward:
- On-platform engagement signals
- Broader audience strategies
- Creative-led targeting
Server Side tracking – every CMO’s data recovery hero
If you haven’t already implemented Server Side Tracking (like Meta’s CAPI or Google’s Enhanced Conversions), our data team’s advice would be: do it, and fast. It can help you steer clear of the following pitfalls heightened by mass VPN use:
- Underreporting conversions
- Misjudging ROAS
- Losing optimisation signals which fuel performance
Whether you’re a Launch client or not, we’re here for a chat about how this could be implemented for your business.
How can CMOs retain access to the customer data they need?
Alongside implementing server-side tracking as soon as possible, the following can help:
- Collecting and leveraging first-party data. In case you’re not sure where to start, our free First Party Data guide might help.
- Build creative strategies which work with broad targeting. Experimentation is an excellent way to identify messages which will resonate
- Prepare your team and clients for a world with less visibility, but more strategic control
At Launch we specialise in helping our clients build full funnel strategies which bring together data, experimentation, content and paid media – ie all of the above. We’d be more than happy to talk through your needs and help you gain some clarity about how to guide your business through the VPN shift.
Remember: Regulation Momentum Is Growing
From GDPR to DMA to these new UK rules – privacy legislation is only moving in one direction. Google is already trialling a new approach to age verification in the US which brands should be aware of. Those which take a proactive approach rather than playing catch up will have the competitive edge.
Our experienced data team has already helped steer clients through the many privacy challenges the past few years have thrown. We’re here for you too if you want a human approach, tailored towards growth that lasts.
